The Importance of Commitment in the New Keynesian Model

In the New Keynesian model, even if the central bank does not have an over-ambitious output target, policy under discretion leads to an inefficiency known as the stabilization bias. In this paper, using a New Keynesian model, we explore and quantify how a cost channel and multi-period data revisions affect the size of the stabilization bias. We find that the presence of a cost channel in the model increases the stabilization bias significantly. On the other hand, multi-period revisions to output and inflation reduce the inefficiency associated with discretionary policy.