Fire futures for a megadiverse continent

Climate change has the capacity to fundamentally alter global fireregimes. The Australian continent is megadiverse with respect toboth biodiversity, and fire regimes. It is an ideal laboratory withinwhich interactions between climate change, fire regimes, ecosystemsand people can be examined. Leading fire researchers andsenior fire and biodiversity managers met at a recent nationalworkshop in Hobart, Australia, to discuss these complex interactions,and how fire management may adapt to the challenges of thecoming century. Regional responses of fire regimes to climatechange may vary. Fire activity may increase due to risingtemperatures and decreasing humidity. Alternatively, fire activitymay decrease if ecosystem productivity decreases due to decliningrainfall. Climate change will also interact with other drivers, such asthe spread of alien species, to alter fire regimes. Such changes in fireregimes may lead to gradual changes in ecosystem composition andstructure, or the changes may be rapid and transformational. Howfire is managed under climate change scenarios will also have effectson biodiversity. Targeted ecosystem monitoring in the field andenhanced national fire regime mapping capacity are both critical topredicting and managing ecosystem changes resulting from climatechange-induced changes to fire regimes.