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Do professional economists’ forecasts reflect Okun's law? Some evidence for the G7 countries

Christian Pierdzioch, Jan-Christoph Rülke, Georg Stadtmann

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Abstract

Using survey data for the G7 countries, we report that professional economists’ forecasts of changes in the unemployment rate and the growth rate of real output are consistent with Okun's law. Professional economists do not believe in potential asymmetries in Okun's law over the business cycle. They believe in the classic linear version of Okun's law.

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What this paper is about

Using survey data for the G7 countries, we report that professional economists’ forecasts of changes in the unemployment rate and the growth rate of real output are consistent with Okun's law. Professional economists do not believe in potential asymmetries in Okun's law over the business cycle. They believe in the classic linear version of Okun's law.

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OpenAlex reports 58 citations for this work. Citation counts describe recorded attention and do not establish research quality.

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Available abstract

Using survey data for the G7 countries, we report that professional economists’ forecasts of changes in the unemployment rate and the growth rate of real output are consistent with Okun's law. Professional economists do not believe in potential asymmetries in Okun's law over the business cycle. They believe in the classic linear version of Okun's law.

Key concepts: Okun's law, Economics, Unemployment, Business cycle, Unemployment rate, Macroeconomics, Econometrics

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