Prediction Research on Anomalous Atmospheric General Circulation in 1998

Abstract Prediction of climate anomalies and the general atmospheric circulation for the summer of 1998 is studied by using a climate model developed in Japan. Quantitative verification of the accuracy of the prediction was made by applying correlation analysis. Results indicate that the predictive skill is relatively high. Both the SST anomalies and initial atmospheric anomalies in spring are important for causing anomalous rainfall over China and anomalous atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during summer. Comparatively impacts of the initial atmospheric anomalies on summer circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is insignificant. The initial anomalous atmospheric circulation is responsible for about half of the total precipitation anomalies in South China.