State abortion policy and infant health: A simulation model of the impact of hypothetical patterns of state laws proscribing abortion services

Prior research suggests that the availability of abortion services may affect the proportion of observed births with poor outcomes (e.g., low birth weight). Recent Supreme Court decisions and changes in the composition of elected officials of state governments have increased the saliency of state discretion over abortion related policies. This paper presents results from a simulation model of the effects of hypothetical state laws prohibiting abortion on observed measures of infant health in the states regarded as most likely to adopt laws significantly restricting abortion access. Under several model scenarios, both the incidence of low birthweight infants and neonatal mortality among blacks are predicted to increase substantially in states adopting restrictive abortion laws. The predicted impact among whites, however, is relatively small.