A second look at the US-Australian monetary growth causal nexus

In earlier work, using the Granger (1969, 1980) notion of causality couched in terms of post-sample perdictability, Layton (1983) found prima facie statistical evidence to support the notion that US monetary growth may be regarded as a leading indicator of Australian monetary growth. However, that study was bivariate in nature and did not take into consideration the influence on Australian monetary growth of any domestic factors. Using the same causality concept, the present analysis extends this work by conducting the causality testing in the trivariate context, taking explicit account of the influence of domestic income growth in determining Australian monetary growth. The evidence continues to support the earlier finding that US monetary growth is Granger-causal to Australian monetary growth.