Devaluation and the trade balance: estimating the long run effect

This study tests the effectiveness of devaluation on the trade balance in eight developing countries from Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America. A unique and new methodology is used to estimate the long run effect of devaluation on the trade balance. The estimated results suggest that devaluation, in general, does not improve the trade balance in the long run. In some cases it even had a perverse effect.