Do artificial nests reveal relative nest predation risk for real nests?

Present knowledge of the effects of nest predation on spatial distribution, habitat selection and community structure of birds is to a large extent based on results from experiments with artificial nests. Although nest predation risk is likely to differ between artificial and real nests, most previous studies of nest predation using artificial nests have been lacking a proper control. We investigated whether predation rates on artificial nests predicted those on real nests by simultaneously comparing the fate of real and artificial nests (containing quail Coturnix coturnix and plasticine eggs) in 92 territories of the northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe in 1996. We also investigated whether risk for artificial nests was related to relative average risk for real nests in these territories (based on data collected two years before and two years after the experiment). Nest predation on artificial nests did predict relative predation risk for real nests only when quail egg depredation was used as the criterion for artificial nest predation. Despite plasticine egg depredation being the most common type of predation it was not associated with predation risk for real nests. Small mice and vole species dominated among cases with only plasticine egg depredation, while predatory mammals and snakes destroyed most quail eggs in artificial nests and most eggs in real wheatear nests. The results suggest that artificial nests may only predict the risk for real nests when the nest predator species are similar among the two types of nest. Furthermore, our data suggest that small mice and vole species rarely depredate nests of mid‐sized passerine birds . Our results cast doubt on many previous conclusions based on experiments with artificial nests, since predation risk for such nests is likely to be uncorrelated with risk for real nests due to nest‐type‐specific differences in nest preying species.