Prediction of abundance of forest flies (Diptera) according to climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in South Korea

This aim of this study was to project the future changes of abundance of dipteran families due to climate change using nationwide fly data of surveys conducted for 4 years from 2006 at 295 sites (forests). Most analyzed families (22) showed characteristics that are expected in normal distribution along a temperature gradient in which the maximum value occurs at an optimum temperature. Temperature changes were projected by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios, and abundance in two periods, 2011s2015 and 2056–2065, was projected using the mean value of abundance in each temperature range. It was predicted that among the 22 families analyzed, the abundance of 21 will decrease and one will increase due to a temperature increase. The family abundance change rates were significantly correlated with temperature. This pattern was used for qualitative prediction (decrease or increase) of other families (> 1% of occurrence). This qualitative prediction also showed that 26 families, except one, were forecasted to decrease.