The United States-Japan Security Relationship: Scenarios for the Future.

Abstract : This thesis examines the viability of the United States-Japan security relationship by considering four scenarios. The scenarios are discussed using a number of specific factors likely to affect the security relationship in the future. The alliance is also considered abstractly using international relations theory to highlight 'systemic' explanations for the behavior of various states in the scenarios. First, the security relationship could come to an end if America is increasingly viewed as the 'policeman' of Asia or the 'cap in the bottle' of Japan without an identifiable benefit to match that role. While the United States was willing to subordinate economic concerns for the sake of security in the past, this will be increasingly difficult in the future. Second, the security arrangement could be threatened if Japan assumes a security role commensurate with its political and economic position in East Asia. If Japan increases the size of its military, this could cloud the rationale for the presence of American military forces in Japan. Japan might choose to do so because of regional dynamics, such as Korean unification; conflict caused by a fragmented or 'weak' China; or the emergence of a regional trading bloc in East Asia. Third, the emergence of China as the dominant power in East Asia might threaten the United States and Japan and reinvigorate their security alliance. China's efforts to increase its influence in the region could cause uneasiness in the United States and Japan prompting them to act as a 'balance' against China. Fourth, efforts to update the relationship could ensure its long-term survival.