2015DergiPark (Istanbul University)Open access

The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Kazakhstan Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Structural Vector Autoregression Approach

Nezir Köse, Sabit Baimaganbetov

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Abstract

This paper assesses empirically the asymmetric effects of real oil price shocks on the industrial production, real exchange rate and inflation in Kazakhstan for the monthly period 2000-2013 by using a Structural VAR model. Structural VAR analysis is carried out using the scaled model. The empirical findings show that the negative oil price shocks have a larger impact on Kazakhstan economic performance.

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This paper assesses empirically the asymmetric effects of real oil price shocks on the industrial production, real exchange rate and inflation in Kazakhstan for the monthly period 2000-2013 by using a Structural VAR model. Structural VAR analysis is carried out using the scaled model. The empirical findings show that the negative oil price shocks have a larger impact on Kazakhstan economic performance.

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Available abstract

This paper assesses empirically the asymmetric effects of real oil price shocks on the industrial production, real exchange rate and inflation in Kazakhstan for the monthly period 2000-2013 by using a Structural VAR model. Structural VAR analysis is carried out using the scaled model. The empirical findings show that the negative oil price shocks have a larger impact on Kazakhstan economic performance.

Key concepts: Vector autoregression, Structural vector autoregression, Oil price, Economics, Bayesian vector autoregression, Econometrics, Autoregressive model, Macroeconomics

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