The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Kazakhstan Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Structural Vector Autoregression Approach
Nezir Köse, Sabit Baimaganbetov
Abstract
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Nezir Köse, Sabit Baimaganbetov
Abstract
Open-access reader
This paper assesses empirically the asymmetric effects of real oil price shocks on the industrial production, real exchange rate and inflation in Kazakhstan for the monthly period 2000-2013 by using a Structural VAR model. Structural VAR analysis is carried out using the scaled model. The empirical findings show that the negative oil price shocks have a larger impact on Kazakhstan economic performance.
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This paper assesses empirically the asymmetric effects of real oil price shocks on the industrial production, real exchange rate and inflation in Kazakhstan for the monthly period 2000-2013 by using a Structural VAR model. Structural VAR analysis is carried out using the scaled model. The empirical findings show that the negative oil price shocks have a larger impact on Kazakhstan economic performance.
Key concepts: Vector autoregression, Structural vector autoregression, Oil price, Economics, Bayesian vector autoregression, Econometrics, Autoregressive model, Macroeconomics