Estimation of Weibull parameters from wind measurement data by comparison of statistical methods
Maja Celeska, Krste Najdenkoski, Vlatko Stoilkov, Aneta L. Buchkovska, Živko Kokolanski, Vladimir Dimchev
Abstract
Maja Celeska, Krste Najdenkoski, Vlatko Stoilkov, Aneta L. Buchkovska, Živko Kokolanski, Vladimir Dimchev
Abstract
In this study, we investigate the wind speed characteristics in the northern part of Republic of Macedonia, using measured wind speed data in the period from August 2012 to March 2015. The two parameter Weibull distribution is widely used for modeling, characterizing and predicting wind resource and wind power, as well as assessing the optimal performance of wind energy conversion systems. Therefore it is very important to precisely estimate the Weibull parameters for any candidate site. We compare four methods for calculating the parameters of Weibull wind speed distribution for wind energy analysis: Method of moments, Empirical method, Maximum likelihood method and Power density method. We apply each method on a sample of hourly averaged wind speed data and estimate its accuracy using statistical methods of analysis. Finaly, we conclude that the Maximum likelihood method gives best results in calculating the shape parameter - k and scale parameter - c for the particular site. Once the Weibull parameters are calculated with high accuracy, further research can be done in using the kinetic wind energy.
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In this study, we investigate the wind speed characteristics in the northern part of Republic of Macedonia, using measured wind speed data in the period from August 2012 to March 2015. The two parameter Weibull distribution is widely used for modeling, characterizing and predicting wind resource and wind power, as well as assessing the optimal performance of wind energy conversion systems. Therefore it is very important to precisely estimate the Weibull parameters for any candidate site. We compare four methods for calculating the parameters of Weibull wind speed distribution for wind energy analysis: Method of moments, Empirical method, Maximum likelihood method and Power density method. We apply each method on a sample of hourly averaged wind speed data and estimate its accuracy using statistical methods of analysis. Finaly, we conclude that the Maximum likelihood method gives best results in calculating the shape parameter - k and scale parameter - c for the particular site. Once the Weibull parameters are calculated with high accuracy, further research can be done in using the kinetic wind energy.
Key concepts: Weibull distribution, Wind speed, Wind power, Shape parameter, Statistics, Environmental science, Meteorology, Computer science