The Retention of High Quality Personnel in the U.S. Armed Forces

This study addresses the question, Does the military retain the best of its first-term recruits? Using data from the 1974 Entry Cohort File developed by the Defense Manpower Data Center, the authors generate an index of job performance that combines entry-level attributes of recruits--Armed Forces Qualification Test scores and level of education--with first-term promotion histories. This quality index is used to assess the relative importance of these characteristics and other unobserved ability factors for evaluating the military's success in retaining high-quality enlisted personnel. The authors find that the military is, in general, successful in retaining high-quality enlisted personnel. Those lost through attrition have the lowest quality. Those who separate at the end of their commitment have about the same quality as those entering the military.