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2009•Economic Journal of Emerging MarketsOpen access

Exports and Economic Growth: The Causality Test for ASEAN Countries

Abdul Ghafar Ismail, D. Agus Harjito

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Abstract

This study proposes to investigate the causality between exports and economic growth in the ASEAN countries over the periods 1966 –2000. The role of the export variable in the investigation of economic growth is emphasized. Using the Johansen cointegration procedures test indicate that there is cointegration between export and economic growth in Indonesia and Singapore, while the Granger causality test shows that there is feedback or bi-directional causality between exports and economic growth only in Indonesia and Philippines. JEL classification: C22; F14; F43;Keywords: export; economic growth; cointegration; causality test.

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What this paper is about

This study proposes to investigate the causality between exports and economic growth in the ASEAN countries over the periods 1966 –2000. The role of the export variable in the investigation of economic growth is emphasized. Using the Johansen cointegration procedures test indicate that there is cointegration between export and economic growth in Indonesia and Singapore, while the Granger causality test shows that there is feedback or bi-directional causality between exports and economic growth only in Indonesia and Philippines. JEL classification: C22; F14; F43;Keywords: export; economic growth; cointegration; causality test.

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Available abstract

This study proposes to investigate the causality between exports and economic growth in the ASEAN countries over the periods 1966 –2000. The role of the export variable in the investigation of economic growth is emphasized. Using the Johansen cointegration procedures test indicate that there is cointegration between export and economic growth in Indonesia and Singapore, while the Granger causality test shows that there is feedback or bi-directional causality between exports and economic growth only in Indonesia and Philippines. JEL classification: C22; F14; F43;Keywords: export; economic growth; cointegration; causality test.

Key concepts: Cointegration, Causality (physics), Economics, Granger causality, Johansen test, Test (biology), Monetary economics, Econometrics

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