Explaining variation in public support to Turkey's EU accession: Turco-scepticism in Europe

This paper tries to parse out the determinants of the European public’s attitudes to Turkey’s accession. Our factor analyses suggest that the attitudes of European individuals towards Turkey’s accession are grouped under two main dimensions: utilitarian and normative. Furthermore, we posit and test the possibility that individuals’ attitudes towards Turkey may also be shaped by the national political context they are immersed in. Our findings indicate that individuals who believe that Turkey belongs to Europe culturally and who believe that its EU membership will provide more benefits to the EU tend to be more pro-accession. An inverse relationship exists between individuals’ belief that Turkey will benefit from EU membership and their support for Turkey’s accession. The most important country-level factor affecting the level of turco-skepticism in a member state seems to be the level of Turkish migrants in its population. Finally, the ideological stance of the government amplifies the effect political ideology of individuals has on their belief about Turkey’s accession.