What Drives Pakistan's Interest in Afghanistan?

Due to its haphazard partition from British Colonial India and a series of internal and external destabilizing events throughout the last six decades, Pakistan has been plagued with varying degrees of instability that leave it today on the edge of becoming either a failed state or a regional power. This instability has led to a laundry list of detrimental effects, which include increased regional tensions with its neighbors, an Al Qaeda sanctuary, and homegrown terrorism that are contributing to the derailment of the Pakistani central government’s rule. Many of the challenges that Pakistan faces are deeply rooted in her relationship with Afghanistan. To understand Pakistan’s complex challenges in this volatile region, an observer must not only analyze Pakistan but also their historical relationship with Afghanistan to intrinsically understand the root causes associated with Pakistani motivations and concerns. Additionally, the causal impacts that other regional nations and sub-national actors have in either providing a positive or negative effect on the natural state of stability between these two nation-states must be incorporated into the analysis. Rarely will any major strategic action from an outside actor directed towards Pakistan not have participative impact on Afghanistan or vice versa. This monograph provides a deep historical study to determine the contextual facts that have evolved the current environmental dynamics that faces Pakistan. With Pakistan’s security, political behavior, and portions of its economy extricably linked with its western neighbor, this research examines what is driving Pakistan’s interest in Afghanistan. The research finds that Pakistan’s external and internal security interests, internal political function, and economy are all inter-woven and influence her relationship with Afghanistan. However, based on the research, it uncovers historical events that have generated the current regional dynamics to determine that security is fundamentally driving Pakistan’s existential interest in controlling Afghanistan. The analysis concludes that Pakistan sees controlling Afghanistan as a fundamental requirement for ensuring their very existence as a nation-state against an aggressive Indian neighbor and internal militant groups. Additionally, Pakistan recognizes that without enduring security she will not be able to achieve the economic growth she requires to achieve her envisioned destiny of being a global leader within the international community. Finally, this monograph provides recommendations for future U.S. strategies and finds that failure to understand these complexities analyzed in the research could lead a failed NATO strategy in Afghanistan, a debunked U.S.-Pakistan-Afghan partnership, and worse case, a regional war between the two nuclear states of Pakistan and India. The findings also conclude that for Pakistan to achieve an enduring state of security there must be open and credible strategic dialogue between Afghanistan and NATO to achieve collective diplomatic agreements that deliver a mutually cooperative partnership. In addition to this strategic dialogue, parallel negotiations are recommended with India and Iran that leads to cooperative concessions, if not formal treaties or agreements, to mitigate their negative influences on Pakistan. This would greatly reduce the regional friction between these collective nations, which historically benefits no specific country. By abiding on the agreed terms of their negotiations, it may lead to an unprecedented regional stability and economic prosperity for all involved.