Outlook for petroleum supply and demand in the 1980's

Basic economic factors seem to be pushing up the real price of oil in the decade of the 1980's and beyond, namely generally tight oil balances, a dwindling resource base, and higher replacement costs. However, the upward trend in oil prices is not likely to be smooth. While future oil markets will probably not be a mirror image of the past, an analysis of price behavior during 1973-74 and again in 1979-80 suggests a basic sequence of events that is likely to be repeated from time to time in the years ahead.