2005•Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung (Alfred-Wegener-Institut)Requires access
Modeling the future contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea-level change
Philippe Huybrechts
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Abstract
Time-dependent 3-D thermomechanical ice sheet models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are forced with a suite of available climate predictions to predict their current and future contribution to global sea-level change. A distinction is made between (i) the ongoing response to past climate changes on time scales as far back as the last glacial period, (ii) the direct effect of contemporary and future surface mass balance changes, and (iii) the ice-dynamic response to these mass balance changes. The climate forcing is reconstructed from high resolution time slices simulations by the ECHAM4, ECHAM5, and HadAM3H models scaled by ice-sheet averaged climate variables from AOGCM scenarios at standard resolution available from the IPCC database. Time scale of interest is mainly the 21st century, but longer simulations, in part from coupled ice sheet/ ocean/ atmosphere models are also performed.