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2013•RePEc: Research Papers in EconomicsRequires access

General Equilibrium Assessment of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite FTA

Dirk Willenbockel

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Abstract

This study provides an ex-ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) assessment of the Tripartite Free Trade Agreement between the member states of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community. The CGE approach enables a consistent integrated predictive evaluation of sectoral production and employment impacts, aggregate income and welfare effects of changes in trade barriers while taking full account of the macroeconomic repercussion arising e.g. from terms-of trade effects, tariff revenue changes and intersectoral input-output linkages. The simulation analysis considers eight distinct trade integration scenarios that differ in their level of ambition.

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This study provides an ex-ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) assessment of the Tripartite Free Trade Agreement between the member states of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community. The CGE approach enables a consistent integrated predictive evaluation of sectoral production and employment impacts, aggregate income and welfare effects of changes in trade barriers while taking full account of the macroeconomic repercussion arising e.g. from terms-of trade effects, tariff revenue changes and intersectoral input-output linkages. The simulation analysis considers eight distinct trade integration scenarios that differ in their level of ambition.

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Available abstract

This study provides an ex-ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) assessment of the Tripartite Free Trade Agreement between the member states of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community. The CGE approach enables a consistent integrated predictive evaluation of sectoral production and employment impacts, aggregate income and welfare effects of changes in trade barriers while taking full account of the macroeconomic repercussion arising e.g. from terms-of trade effects, tariff revenue changes and intersectoral input-output linkages. The simulation analysis considers eight distinct trade integration scenarios that differ in their level of ambition.

Key concepts: Computable general equilibrium, Economics, Welfare, Tariff, General equilibrium theory, Revenue, International economics, International trade

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