ORNL engineering-economic model of residential energy use

The ORNL residential energy use model was developed to simulate energy use in the residential sector from 1970 through 2000. The model provides considerable detail on annual energy uses by fuel, end use, and housing type; and also estimates annual equipment installations and ownership, equipment energy requirements, structure thermal performance, fuel expenditures, equipment costs, and costs for improving thermal performance of new and existing housing units. Thus, the model provides considerable detail on residential energy uses and associated costs. These details are useful for evaluating alternative energy-conservation policies, programs, and technologies for their energy and economic effects during the next quarter century. The present version of the model deals with four fuels, eight end uses and three housing types. Each of these fuel use components is calculated each year as a function of stocks of occupied housing units and new construction, average housing size, equipment ownership by fuel and end use, thermal performance of housing units, average unit energy requirements for each equipment type, and usage factors that reflect household behavior. Simulations of energy use from 1960 to 1976 show that the model accurately predicts historical data on aggregate energy use, energy use by fuel, energy use by end use,more » and equipment ownership market shares.« less