Technological Forecasting for The Military Manager

This chapter explains some of the approaches being examined within the United States Department of the Navy, as well as some of the directions being actively explored in US industry. It shows how a specific decision can be analyzed, based on the forecasting techniques utilized at the Annapolis Division of Naval Ships Research and Development Center. Corporate goals may be viewed by top management from the wants (desires or needs) of the organization which has been carefully considered for feasibility against the present or potential capabilities of the organization. In order to establish corporate goals, the preliminary steps of systems analysis, needs analysis, and deficiency analysis must be accomplished. Most of the managers who design and work with information systems fully realize that technological forecasts, quantitative estimates of project value, and other aids to resource allocation are merely a planning tool – and only one of a brand new kit of advanced decision-making devices.