Backcasting Approach for Sustainable Mobility

In transport policies planning forecasting scenario studies are very common. Problems are assessed due to current and future transport activities, based on the continuation of current socio economic trends. During the last years, backcasting approach has been applied in the transport planning highlighting its efficiency in indicating policy pathway for the complex transport market and to achieve a sustainable transport system.The choice of this approach to design scenarios of sustainable mobility is supported by its suitability when the policy targets do not seem to be reached by adjustments to a business-as-usual development. Indeed, scenarios based on backcasting may be capable of generating new policy directions needed if transportation is to become environmentally sustainable (OECD, 2002a).\nAs example of the suitability of backcasting approach to design a sustainable mobility policy path, this report develops two scenarios based on two different images of future to reduce EU CO2 emissions by 50% by 2050 and to indicate policy packages to achieve this target. The indications are illustrative rather than perspective. They indicate the type and magnitude of the responses that might be expected from the examined polices, rather than representing recommendations to undertake the simulated policy actions. The choice of including sustainability issues and backcasting visions in transport planning is more a political challenge than a scientific one.