CAN VIETNAM ACHIEVE THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL ON POVERTY REDUCTION IN HIGH INFLATION AND ECONOMIC STAGNATION?

An important aspect of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to which Vietnam is committed is to reduce overall and food poverty. Although Vietnam has achieved remarkable reductions in poverty during recent years, Vietnam may not achieve its MDGs on poverty reduction because of high inflation and economic stagnation. This paper uses three recent Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys (VHLSSs), in 2002, 2004, and 2006, to forecast poverty in 2008 and 2010 to examine whether Vietnam can achieve its MDGs on poverty reduction. The forecast takes into account high inflation in 2008 and economic stagnation during 2008–09. It is found that Vietnam may be able to achieve its MDGs on reduction of overall poverty; however, the MDGs on food poverty reduction may not be achieved.