Forecasting Cigarette Consumption in Greece: An empirical investigation with cointegration analysis

This paper investigates the relationship between cigarette consumption per capita net disposable income, cigarette price index, and per capita expenditure for education. In this empirical analysis the Johansen cointegration test is applied in conjunction with the vector error correction model. Finally, the forecasting technique of cigarettes consumption in Greece using cointegration models is presented as well. This technique presupposes the formation of a structural equations system, which includes the short-run and the long-run relationships of the model variables.