Possible Economic Effects of CU—EU Trade Agreement

This paper investigates the possible economic effects of free trade agreement (FTA), implying a mutual zero import tariffs in the trade between the Customs Union and the EU. Analysis of the effects is made using CGE Globe v1 model. We estimate the impact of FTA on the economies, both at the level of the entire economy and at the industry level. The sensitivity analysis is made. It is shown that, in both relative and absolute terms, Russia potentially benefits from the agreement more than the EU. The cumulative gain of the CU is strictly positive, but the benefits and costs are unevenly distributed among its members.