A STRUCTURED-LOGIT MODEL OF AUTOMOBILE ACQUISITION AND TYPE CHOICE

A dominant theme in the literature on automobile ownership has been the estimation of aggregate motor vehicle demand. Recognition of the structural and estimation deficiencies of the aggregate models (predominantly stock adjustment models) as well as the need for policy sensitive vehicle type choice predictions, particularly as a consequence of rapid and regular fuel price increases (in money terms), has led to the development of individual discrete choice models of household vehicle ownership. This paper outlines the first empirical study to model the joint decision of auto acquisition choice and auto type choice. It faces up to the decision process that results in a vehicle being in the household. A major emphasis is the demonstration of the usefulness of individual choice models in the sensitive arena of energy policy and vehicle design (a). This report is also working paper no 1 for the dimensions of automobile demand project.