Mapping South African Farming Sector Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability: A Subnational Assessment

This paper analyzes the vulnerability of South African farmers to climate change and variability by developing a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across the nine provinces of the country. Nineteen environmental and socio-economic indicators are identified to reflect the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results of the study show that the regions most vulnerable to exposure to extreme events and climate change and variability, do not always overlap with the most vulnerable populations. Furthermore, vulnerability to climate change and variability is intrinsically linked with social and economic development. The Western Cape and Gauteng provinces, with the high level of infrastructure development, high literacy rates, and low share of agricultural GDP, are lower on the vulnerability index; whereas, the most vulnerable regions Limpopo, Kwazulu Natal and Eastern Cape, are those with high number of small-scale farmers, high dependency on rainfed agriculture, high land degradation, and highly populated rural areas where the majority of the population relies on agriculture for their