An Analysis of Actual and Potential Trade between the EU Countries and the Eastern European Countries

The Eastern Enlargement represents an opportunity for trade growth for all the European Union (EU) countries. In fact, trade between the EU and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) has increased considerably in the nineties. However, both benefits and losses from trade expansion do not equally affect all countries and regions inside the EU. This paper focus on the analysis of the potential bilateral trade flows between the EU and the CEEC and in special between the CEEC and the Southern European countries. The analysis is based on the gravity model approach using panel data from 1993 to 1999. It is possible to conclude that there is still scope for further expansion of the trade flows between some CEEC and some of the EU countries, in particular of some Southern countries.