Demand Forecasting for Road Transportation in Japan

In Japan, population reached at maximum at 128 million in 2005, then, started to decrease with more elderly generations. Under such circumstance, estimating effects of new road has become significantly important in forecasting road transportation demand, using cost-benefit analysis, environmental effect analysis for political decision of planning national trunk road network. This study attempted to comprehend recent development in transport demand by vehicle, and to forecast future demand based on model analysis. The study found that vehicle transport demand (VKT) for both passenger and freight vehicles have decreased; in passenger transport, driver's license holders have increased among women and the elderly. Number of trips by vehicle increased, and average travel distance has decreased due to increase of light passenger vehicles. Regarding freight transport, transport unit has decreased due to increase in value-added to carried goods. Freight transport has been shifted to in-house, and regular truck. Operation range for freight vehicle has expanded as well.