United States treasury bonds: are they the appropriate benchmark for investment decisions?
G.A. Cahill, G.F. Goldberg, Wayne H. Shaw
Abstract
G.A. Cahill, G.F. Goldberg, Wayne H. Shaw
Abstract
Managers making investment decisions, frequently compare the expected return on investment (ROI) of a proposed project to the return currently available of United States Long Term (30 year) Treasury Bonds. The Treasury return is assumed to be risk free and therefore a proposed investment, to be accepted, must provide this return plus a risk premium proportional to the perceived greater risk of the project. This frequent usage of the 30 year Treasury as a risk free benchmark piqued the authors' curiosity, and they began their investigation into fluctuations in the yield, and hence, prices on a historical basis. They collected historical data on yields for the 1798-1996 period, almost 200 years. A cursory review of the results provided several surprises.
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Managers making investment decisions, frequently compare the expected return on investment (ROI) of a proposed project to the return currently available of United States Long Term (30 year) Treasury Bonds. The Treasury return is assumed to be risk free and therefore a proposed investment, to be accepted, must provide this return plus a risk premium proportional to the perceived greater risk of the project. This frequent usage of the 30 year Treasury as a risk free benchmark piqued the authors' curiosity, and they began their investigation into fluctuations in the yield, and hence, prices on a historical basis. They collected historical data on yields for the 1798-1996 period, almost 200 years. A cursory review of the results provided several surprises.
Key concepts: Treasury, Bond, Benchmark (surveying), Investment (military), Expected return, Return on investment, Investment performance, Risk–return spectrum