Roulette simulations and Martingale betting: nifty assignment
David Reed
Abstract
David Reed
Abstract
The Martingale betting strategy for playing roulette is centuries old, but still pops up in viral emails and in various scams. The strategy calls for the gambler to double the bet amount after each loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original bet. The claim is that this system will guarantee a profit. In reality, it does nothing of the kind, since its success relies upon the gambler having an infinite bankroll (and the house not imposing betting limits). In part 1 of this assignment, the students are provided with the RouletteWheel class that models a roulette wheel and asked to implement the RouletteGame class for playing a game of roulette. A player in the game can enter credits into his or her account and can make bets on spins of the wheel. The player may bet on a specific number (1--36) or a color (red or black), and the game keeps track of their winnings and losses. In part 2, the students use their roulette game code to study different betting strategies. They are presented with the question: If you had to double your money (or else), what would be your best betting strategy? By simulating thousands of games using the RouletteTester class, with each game continuing until the player has doubled his or her money or else gone broke, student are able to determine which strategy (number vs. color, big bet vs. small bet) is preferable. The results can be somewhat surprising. In part 3 of the assignment, students are asked to extend their analysis to the Martingale betting strategy. This involves relatively minor modifications to the simulation code, so that the bet amount changes after each spin. Using the modified simulation, students are able to compare the performance of the Martingale system with previous betting strategies and observe just how ineffective this can't lose system truly is. A full version of the assignment, along with source code, can be found online at http://dave-reed.com/NiftyRoulette.
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The Martingale betting strategy for playing roulette is centuries old, but still pops up in viral emails and in various scams. The strategy calls for the gambler to double the bet amount after each loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original bet. The claim is that this system will guarantee a profit. In reality, it does nothing of the kind, since its success relies upon the gambler having an infinite bankroll (and the house not imposing betting limits). In part 1 of this assignment, the students are provided with the RouletteWheel class that models a roulette wheel and asked to implement the RouletteGame class for playing a game of roulette. A player in the game can enter credits into his or her account and can make bets on spins of the wheel. The player may bet on a specific number (1--36) or a color (red or black), and the game keeps track of their winnings and losses. In part 2, the students use their roulette game code to study different betting strategies. They are presented with the question: If you had to double your money (or else), what would be your best betting strategy? By simulating thousands of games using the RouletteTester class, with each game continuing until the player has doubled his or her money or else gone broke, student are able to determine which strategy (number vs. color, big bet vs. small bet) is preferable. The results can be somewhat surprising. In part 3 of the assignment, students are asked to extend their analysis to the Martingale betting strategy. This involves relatively minor modifications to the simulation code, so that the bet amount changes after each spin. Using the modified simulation, students are able to compare the performance of the Martingale system with previous betting strategies and observe just how ineffective this can't lose system truly is. A full version of the assignment, along with source code, can be found online at http://dave-reed.com/NiftyRoulette.
Key concepts: Roulette, Martingale (probability theory), Profit (economics), Computer science, Coin flipping, Mathematical economics, Operations research, Advertising