AGRICULTURAL TRADE POLICIES AND TRADE RELATIONS IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES

The economic changes during transition involved a shift away from the planned foreign trade organization within the council for mutual economic assistance. Following a phase of farreaching trade policy liberalization, the agricultural sector in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) has in the last years again been increasingly regulated. At the same time as the CEECs are striving for accession to the European Union, regional free trade agreements (FTA) and membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) have gained importance. The analysis shows that an effective reduction of agricultural protectionism as a result of WTO obligations can only be expected from a small number of CEECs. The effects induced through changes in international agricultural commodity markets in the CEECs depend particularly on the trade status and the trade structure in the agricultural sector, as well as on internal macro- and agricultural economic distortions. An appraisal of regional FTAs such as the Central European Free Trade Agreement and the Baltic Free Trade Agreement has to take into consideration the "Vinerian" effects of trade creation and trade diversion, as well as non-traditional effects, such as an increase in credibility of political decisions, and the strengthening of the bargaining power of the countries involved. The Europe Agreements and the aim of accession to the EU are of crucial importance to the CEECs. In the framework of an empirical analysis it is shown that the countries which have not been invited to the first round of accession negotiations might be adversely affected by the first east enlargement of the EU.