Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation

This report documents the development of methods for use by planners in rural areas and operators of rural passenger transportation systems to quantify the need for passenger transportation services and the demand that is likely to be generated if passenger transportation services are provided. The methods for estimating need are of two types – the number of persons likely to have a need for passenger transportation and the number of trips that would be required to provide persons lacking a personal vehicle with a level of mobility equal to those having access to a personal vehicle. The methods for estimating demand address four specific markets – general public rural passenger transportation, passenger transportation specifically related to social service or other programs, travel on fixed-route services in micropolitan areas, and travel on commuter services from rural counties to urban centers. The methods were developed using data from the Rural National Transit Database (2006, 2009, and 2010), the National Household Travel Survey (2001 and 2009), the American Community Survey (various years) and the Longitudinal Employment-Household Dynamics dataset as well as data on services operated and ridership on those services provided by over 200 individuals who participated in workshops held in a dozen states in 2010 and 2011. The report documents the process used by the research team in developing the need and demand estimation methods, the findings of the analyses, and recommendations for functions to be used in estimation of need and demand.