CHANCE GOVERNS ALL: THE FRAGMENTED, FRUSTATING STATE OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE POLICY IN THE UNITED STATES.

The U.S. agricultural policy process is marked by a proliferation of organized interests and rising transaction costs. These pose a barrier for countries negotiating with the United States on trade issues. This paper examines the causes of this proliferation of interests, the impact of this proliferation on trade policy decisions, and the consequences of these escalating transaction costs for countries negotiating with the United States. The results suggest that other countries must anticipate that the U.S. position in trade negotiations will be the result of an accommodation of conflicting interests and that any agreement will pass Congress only if it contains gains for U.S. export industries.