Investment-Based Momentum Profits

We offer an investment-based explanation of momentum. The neoclassical theory of investment implies that expected stock returns are related to expected investment returns, defined as the next-period marginal benefits of investment divided by the current-period marginal costs of investment. Empirically, winners have higher expected growth of investment-to-capital and higher expected marginal product of capital and consequently higher expected stock returns than losers. The investment-based expected return model captures well the momentum profits across a wide array of momentum portfolios. However, the individual alphas for several testing portfolios are large. All in all, we conclude that momentum is consistent with the value maximization of firms.