Private capital formation: Short- and long-run crowding-in (out) effects in ASEAN, 1971-99

This study presents an empirical assessment of the factors that have stimulated (deterred) private investment in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies during the past three decades. The results for the short-run suggest that output growth and public investment were the dominant determinants of private investment, while those for the long-run suggest FDI as an additional dominant determinant. The monetary policy variables were on the other hand less effective determinants. Furthermore, whereas output growth and FDI were implicit crowding-in factors, public investment was an effective crowding-out factor. The other determinants imparted both crowding-in and crowding-out effects. While external indebtedness generated long-run crowding-out effects, there is limited evidence to suggest that it did so in the short-run.