Predicting Performance: Analysis of Background Factors and Probability of Promotion in the Surface Warfare and Submarine Officer Communities

This thesis estimates the determinants of promotion probability to Lieutenant Commander over the period 1985-1990 for Surface Warfare Officers (SWOs) and Submarine Officers (SOs). Using data from the Naval Officer Promotion History Data Files, the analysis first examines the frequency distribution of the explanatory variables, then employs a log it regression analysis. The probabilities of-promotion are modeled as a function of background factors, which include personal demographics, undergraduate education, and Navy experience. The findings reveal that having a high GPA, a graduate education, more than 3 additional qualification designators (AQDs), and having been screened for command each have a positive effect on promotion for SWOs and are statistically significant. By contrast, being an ROTC graduate, being older, and having a low GPA each have a negative effect on probability of promotion and are statistically significant in the SWO model. In the SO model, having a high GPA, a graduate education, more than 3 AQDs, and a technical undergraduate major are positively significant. Based on the results, it is recommended that the Republic of Korea focus its recruiting efforts on highly qualified officer candidates if it can be demonstrated that the results of this analysis apply to Korea