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Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability under a Concept of Fiscal Space

Norabajra Asava-vallobh

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Abstract

This paper employs the concept of “fiscal space” to examine the Thai fiscal sustainability. The idea is to estimate fiscal response function of public debt to fiscal balance, which can be used to calculate the level of debt to GDP ratio in equilibrium together with its ceiling. The results show that the equilibrium of debt to GDP in Thailand is at 45.3 percent which is quite close to its current level. Moreover, it is found that the ceiling of debt to GDP ratio is at 60 percent which is consistent with the Thai Ministry of Finance’s policy framework on fiscal sustainability.

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What this paper is about

This paper employs the concept of “fiscal space” to examine the Thai fiscal sustainability. The idea is to estimate fiscal response function of public debt to fiscal balance, which can be used to calculate the level of debt to GDP ratio in equilibrium together with its ceiling. The results show that the equilibrium of debt to GDP in Thailand is at 45.3 percent which is quite close to its current level. Moreover, it is found that the ceiling of debt to GDP ratio is at 60 percent which is consistent with the Thai Ministry of Finance’s policy framework on fiscal sustainability.

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Available abstract

This paper employs the concept of “fiscal space” to examine the Thai fiscal sustainability. The idea is to estimate fiscal response function of public debt to fiscal balance, which can be used to calculate the level of debt to GDP ratio in equilibrium together with its ceiling. The results show that the equilibrium of debt to GDP in Thailand is at 45.3 percent which is quite close to its current level. Moreover, it is found that the ceiling of debt to GDP ratio is at 60 percent which is consistent with the Thai Ministry of Finance’s policy framework on fiscal sustainability.

Key concepts: Fiscal sustainability, Fiscal space, Economics, Debt, Ceiling (cloud), Fiscal policy, Christian ministry, Debt ratio

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