One-Dimensional Model Predictions of Ocean Temperature Anomalies during Fall, 1976.

The hypothesis that upper Ocean temperature anomalies that developed over the North Pacific Ocean during the fall-winter of 1976-77 were primarily generated by vertical mixing processes was tested using the Garwood (1977) mixed layer model. A series of points along 175 deg W and along 38 deg N were chosen for use in this preliminary study. Atmospheric forcing for the one-dimensional ocean model was derived from the surface heat budget calculations in the Fleet Numerical Weather Central (FNWC) atmospheric prediction model. The suitability of the FNWC heat flux calculations was evaluated through comparison with the upper ocean heat content changes derived from the TRANSPAC analyses. The comparisons showed better agreement along 175 deg W than along 38 deg N. A series of ocean thermal structure predictions from 15 September to 31 December 1976 were made using the time series of the atmospheric forcing and the initial profile from the September TRANSPAC analysis. In the central region near 38 deg N, 165 deg W the predicted thermal structure agreed very well with the TRANSPAC analysis for December 1976. Near the southern and western ends of the domain, the temperature predictions were systematically lower than the analyzed values between the surface and 200 m. (Author)