A Second Stage of the Crisis Characterized by Uncertainty

From the second quarter of 2009, global economic activity began to show signs of recovery after the recession caused by the subprime crisis. However, the optimism of late 2009 has given way to greater caution on the speed of the recovery, particularly in developed countries. This marks a second stage of the crisis characterized by uncertainty about the chances of a sustainable recovery of the global economy. In this context, emerging and developing countries are showing a better economic performance, although one wonders if a "decoupling" is possible in an environment of weak growth in advanced countries. Parallel to the developments of the global economy, negotiations to reform the international financial architecture in the area of G-20 continued. The objective of this reform is to make the global economy less prone to crisis. Despite the progress in negotiations, it is still unclear how the new international financial system will look after the reforms and, especially, how this will impact on the performance of the global economy in the short and long run. This represents another factor of uncertainty.