A learning curve approach to projecting cost and performance for photovoltaic technologies

The current cost of electricity generated by PV power is still extremely high with respect to power supplied by the utility grid, and there remain questions as to whether PV power can ever be competitive with electricity generated by fossil fuels. An objective approach to this important question was given in a previous paper by the authors which introduced analytical tools to define and project the technical/economic status of PV power from 1988 through the year 2010. In this paper, we apply these same tools to update the conclusions of our earlier study in the context of recent announcements by Amoco/Enron-Solarex of projected sales of PV power at rates significantly less than the US utility average.