Initial consideration of approaches and methods for estimating wider FISP contributions

This paper provides an initial consideration of possible approaches and methods for estimating the wider contributions of FISP to growth, poverty reduction and resilience. Previous estimates of the economic benefit cost ratio have only examined producer benefits and have noted but not explicitly estimated the wider indirect benefits of, for example, lower maize prices to consumers. Estimates of these wider indirect benefits will be developed and ‘triangulated’ using information from livelihood and rural economy model simulations and from estimates of consumer surplus. Both of these methods require estimation of key parameters and, given difficulties in making precise estimates, will provide ranges in estimated returns under different assumptions. These estimates will both feed into and benefit from data collection and analysis to estimate direct and indirect impacts of the programme on incomes and poverty reduction, vulnerability and resilience, and marginalisation and exclusion. This work will involve gathering of a third round of household and community survey data with focus group discussions. Analysis of the new household survey data with panel data from previous survey rounds will be augmented by data collection on some new variables. Poverty incidence will be estimated using seasonally adjusted WMS models. Information on income from different sources and on asset holdings will provide indicators on welfare changes, and with consideration of diversification of income and asset portfolios, will also provide indicators on changes in vulnerability and resilience. This will be augmented by analysis of panel data on the incidence, severity and effects of shocks and stresses recorded in the different surveys.