Principles and techniques of predicting future demand for urban area transportation

RESULTS ARE PRESENTED OF A PILOT STUDY INTO THE CURRENT PRINCIPLES AND TECHNIQUES FOR PREDICTING THE PRESENT AND FUTURE DEMANDS FOR URBAN AREA TRANSPORTATION. A REVIEW IS PRESENTED OF THE EXISTING PRINCIPLES AND TECHNIQUES OF THE PLANNING PROCESS BY COMPARING THE VARIOUS ALTERNATIVE METHODS AND IDENTIFYING THE ASSUMPTIONS AND ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF EACH. THE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS IS EMPHASIZED AS A TOTAL PROCESS, WHICH NECESSARILY INCLUDES INTEGRATION OF MANY OF THE INTERRACTING CHARACTERISTICS OF THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT. THE FOLLOWING THREE MAIN PHASES OF THIS TOTAL PROCESS ARE RECOGNIZED AND DESCRIBED IN DETAIL: (1) THE INVENTORIES OF EXISTING CONDITIONS (I.E., LAND USE, POPULATION, VEHICLE OWNERSHIP, VEHICULAR AND PERSON TRAVEL, TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES, AND MONETARY RESOURCES), (2) THE ESTIMATES OF FUTURE URBAN AREA GROWTH (I.E., POPULATION, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, VEHICLE OWNERSHIP, LAND USE, AND THE TRANSPORTATION NETWORK), AND (3) THE DETERMINATION OF FUTURE TRAVEL DEMAND (TRIP GENERATION, MODAL SPLIT, INTERZONAL TRANSFERS, AND THE ASSIGNMENT OF TRAFFIC TO TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES). EMPHASIS HAS BEEN GIVEN TO THOSE PARTS OF THE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS WHERE CURRENT METHODS ARE INADEQUATE AND RECOMMENDATIONS ARE MADE FOR FUTURE RESEARCH IN PREDICTING THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR URBAN AREA TRANSPORTATION. /AUTHOR/