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2006•RePEc: Research Papers in EconomicsRequires access

AGEING, RETIREMENT AND SAVINGS: A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS

Mariano Kulish, Kathryn H. Smith, Christopher Kent

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Abstract

This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of ageing in an overlapping-generations model with endogenous retirement. We study the behaviour of the economy when population ageing is driven by movements in fertility, changes in longevity, and a combination of both. To gauge the economic implications of these demographic changes we calibrate the model to match key features of the Australian economy. With either a fall in fertility or a rise in longevity, population ageing increases capital intensity in the long run. When fertility and longevity operate together, the increase in capital intensity is more than additive, and the share of life spent in retirement stays roughly constant. The dynamic response of the economy is sensitive to the relative strength of the two factors that drive ageing.

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What this paper is about

This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of ageing in an overlapping-generations model with endogenous retirement. We study the behaviour of the economy when population ageing is driven by movements in fertility, changes in longevity, and a combination of both. To gauge the economic implications of these demographic changes we calibrate the model to match key features of the Australian economy. With either a fall in fertility or a rise in longevity, population ageing increases capital intensity in the long run. When fertility and longevity operate together, the increase in capital intensity is more than additive, and the share of life spent in retirement stays roughly constant. The dynamic response of the economy is sensitive to the relative strength of the two factors that drive ageing.

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Available abstract

This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of ageing in an overlapping-generations model with endogenous retirement. We study the behaviour of the economy when population ageing is driven by movements in fertility, changes in longevity, and a combination of both. To gauge the economic implications of these demographic changes we calibrate the model to match key features of the Australian economy. With either a fall in fertility or a rise in longevity, population ageing increases capital intensity in the long run. When fertility and longevity operate together, the increase in capital intensity is more than additive, and the share of life spent in retirement stays roughly constant. The dynamic response of the economy is sensitive to the relative strength of the two factors that drive ageing.

Key concepts: Longevity, Fertility, Overlapping generations model, Population ageing, Economics, Ageing, Demographic change, Human capital

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