THE EFFECT OF REDUCED FARE PLANS FOR THE ELDERLY ON TRANSIT SYSTEM ROUTES

REDUCED TRANSIT FARE PROGRAMS FOR THE ELDERLY ARE EXAMINED TO ASSESS THEIR IMPACT ON: (1) GROSS FAREBOX REVENUES; (2) QUALITY OF SERVICE TO OTHER TRANSIT USERS; (3) ROUTE PLANNING; AND (4) OPERATING COSTS. REDUCED FARE PLANS WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF THIS ANALYSIS PROVIDE SPECIAL OFF-PEAK RATES FOR ELDERLY PASSENGERS IN AN ATTEMPT TO REDISTRIBUTE DAILY RIDERSHIP AND ENCOURAGE GREATER TRANSIT USAGE BY THIS CAPTIVE AGE GROUP. THE RESULTS OF REDUCED FARE DEMONSTRATIONS UNDERTAKEN IN CHICAGO, LOS ANGELES, DETROIT, TOLEDO, AND NEW YORK CITY, NOTED IN THE PRESENT REPORT, EMPHASIZED GENERAL RIDERSHIP DATA AND DID NOT YIELD A MODEL FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON OVERALL TRANSIT OPERATIONS. THE AUTHORS SYNTHESIZE AN EMPIRICAL EQUATION FOR MEASURING REVENUE CHANGE AS THE SUM OF THREE EFFECTS-- REVENUE GAINS FROM NEW BASE PERIOD RIDES AT REDUCED FARES, REVENUE LOSSES DUE TO FORMER BASE RIDERS USING REDUCED FARES, AND REVENUE LOSSES DUE TO PEAK RIDES SHIFTING TO BASE. IT IS DEMONSTRATED THAT THE CONVENTIONAL METHOD OF MULTIPLYING THE AMOUNT OF FARE REDUCTION BY TOTAL TRIPS TO DETERMINE REVENUE LOSSES IS INCORRECT, AS CHANGES IN THE FARE STRUCTURE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN OVERALL INCREASE IN TRANSIT RIDERSHIP WHICH MAY MITIGATE GROSS LOSSES. FURTHER, WHERE TRANSIT OPERATIONS (ROUTING, EQUIPMENT IN SERVICE, MANPOWER ALLOCATIONS, ETC.) ARE REVISED TO MEET CHANGES IN DEMAND BY ELDERLY PASSENGERS DURING OFF-PEAK HOURS, THE COST OF SUCH OPERATIONS MAY BE SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED. APPENDED MATERIAL OUTLINES DERIVATION OF THE MODEL, DEMAND FOR TRANSIT AMONG ELDERLY PERSONS, BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS, THE ESTIMATED EFFECT OF AUTOMATIC FARE COLLECTION SYSTEMS AND INFORMATIONAL AIDS ON ELDERLY RIDERSHIP, AN EVALUATION OF PROPOSED FARE REDUCTION PROGRAMS, AND AN ACTUAL PROGRAM FOR COMPUTER ANALYSIS WITH THE MODEL. /AUTHOR/