A Positive Analysis on Quantitative Relations between Chinese RMB Exchange Rate and Other Economic Variables

This article, firstly, assumes RMB endogenous variable to analyze its influence factors secondly, it assumes RMB exogenous variable to analyze its effect on others. Through quantitative analysis, we show since 1985, quantity of Chinese Money and GDP affected price together with government adjusted RMB exchange rate according to price changing, and change of RMB exchange rate is promoting export and restraining import. Meanwhile, article got quantitative regulars between every variable. Since China has reformed, government had reformed several times for of RMB exchange rate. From 1994 to now, it was defined as the managed floating regime. But in cause of RMB changing or no changing, RMB exchange rate still is government administered rate, which means that state-administrative office of foreign exchange increases or declines RMB exchange rate according to situation of macro-economy, and it is not to adjust exchange rate spontaneously in market according to economic factors. When economic variable that decides exchange rate changes, state-administrative office of foreign exchange needs to adjust favorably exchange rate, keep level of rate not to change, or adjust exchange rate against. Therefore, in field of macro-economy changing in China, RMB exchange rate is exogenous variable in terms of adjusting function. This way, it is difficult for us to analyze and forecast exchange rate as accurately as price and account of money demand which use it as endogenous variable. This article will describe quantitative relations that exist actually between RMB exchange rate and some macro-economic variables in order to find some statistic pattern.