The U.S. Trade Deficit: A Misleading Economic Indicator

The U.S. trade deficit is the most misleading indicator of economic performance in our statistical tool kit. More often than not, bad news for the economy is good news for the trade deficit, and vice versa. In 1992, the economy was in recession and our trade deficit came down. One year later, the opposite was true. When we look beyond the short-run gyrations of the trade balance and the business cycle, more fundamental, longer-run problems do involve the trade deficit. Indeed, it is a symptom of a more basic economic imbalance.