[The fifth phase of demographic transition: population regression].

The article is theoretical in character; the author investigated what would be the demographic condition in societies after completing the historical process of demographic tansition. Conventionally, the author distinguishes 4 successive phases of this process. They are: demographic equilibrium of the primitive type (high levels of fertility and mortality), decrease of mortality, decrease of fertility, and the demographic equilibrium of the modern type (low levels of fertility and mortality). The author puts forth the question of whether or not the attainment of the demographic equilibrium of the modern type will prove to be the final stage of changes in the process of reproduction of the population. The question is whether there will be some new phase following the 4th phase which is the final one in the traditional picture of demographic transition? Allowing for such a possibility, the author labels it the 5th phase, where there would be a predominance of deaths over births (or a population regression). In the author's opinion, such a course of events is possible and even probable. In the case of short periods of decline in the size of population this would not be of much importance. However, the prevalence of the 5th phase over a long period would endanger the survival of nations. In the face of such a danger, demographic science should now begin to investigate the steering of demographic processes. There is a need for an instrument which will allow for the maintenance of population reproduction at a level adequate to the needs of the whole society. (author's)