Key Pavement Performance Indicators and Prediction Models Applied in a Canadian PMS

One of the key functions required for a pavement management system (PMS) is its ability to evaluate and predict future pavement conditions within an analysis period. This evaluation involves the use of pavement performance indicators and performance prediction models. While performance indicators deal with evaluation of pavement structural and functional performance from different perspectives of road serviceability level, performance prediction models are used to relate future pavement conditions with its current condition in conjunction with a number of influential factors such as age, traffic, and pavement structural and environmental conditions. This paper presents the performance indicators and their prediction models used in the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario’s PMS (MTO PMS). This paper covers the main issues related to pavement evaluation indicators and pavement condition prediction models, with the emphasis on examination of the general properties of the individual indicators such as sensitivity, rationality, economy and practicality. A list of pavement condition evaluation indicators used in MTO PMS for measuring and predicting pavement performance are analyzed by road functional class, pavement structure and surface type. The main tasks involve reviewing the historic pavement performance data observed from Ontario’s provincial highway network over the past 25 years, and verifying individual pavement deterioration trends as compared to the outputs from the prediction models used in the system. The main findings and conclusions include 1) the impacts of using alternative pavement performance indicators on pavement condition assessment, 2) sensitivity of changing performance trigger levels on pavement performance distribution and investment planning, 3) and the needs for improvement in the existing performance prediction models used in the MTO PMS.